Marin County Real Estate Tracker – September 2018

    Zephyr MarketTracker Zephyr
    Median Sales Price
    Avg. Days on Market
    # Homes Sold
    % List Price Received
    $1,224,000
    45
    166
    100.1%
    In this issue, we examine some monthly price trends. Despite the natural statistical variation from one month to the next, year over year analysis of specific months can give us insight into the direction of the market.

    Tracking Price Trends

    The median sales price (MSP) for single-family homes is up 8.92% over the last 2 years. However, the August numbers in 2016, 17, and 18 have remained remarkably consistent changing only 4.17%. While Marin does tend to be seasonal, the MSP during the winter months of 2016 was very low, but jumped markedly in 2017. This makes it tough to call the consistency from August to August a seasonal change.

    For Condos, the difference between annual and monthly tracking is more extreme. Annual numbers show an MSP increase of 11.17% over the last 24 months. However, August over August shows a decrease of 6.10%! This may be due to an unusual and abrupt drop in MSP during July and August of 2018.

    Months Supply of Inventory

    The months supply of inventory tells us how many months it would take to completely sell out of inventory. Typically, this number is low in the fast-paced Marin market with an uptick in winter when activity slows. A balanced market is one in which the inventory is just enough to satisfy demand. Currently, both condos and single-family homes are about 2 points away from being balanced. This lack of balance is exemplified by the number of new Listings as compared to pending sales of single-family homes.

    North and South

    The Northern and Southern cities of Marin are like the tortoise (North Marin) and the hare (South Marin). The prices in North Marin creep upwards (up about 10.85% over August of 2016). South Marin races ahead but bounces up and down (ending up 6.65% over August of 2016). In an unusual turn of events, both show a downward trend in MSP since May of this year. We will have to see how that plays out long term.

    How do all the Numbers Fit Together?

    So, what do all these numbers mean? Overall, with active inventory down, pending sales up, and closed sales also down, we see an unbalanced market in which the available homes are not meeting the demand of eager buyers.

    These monthly trends are, of course, helpful information. However, based on the downturn in MSP since May, as well as the anticipated surge of inventory that often hits the market in September we will be keeping an eye out for new developments.

    All Marin
    Sold for $1,782,000
    87 Stonetree Lane, Novato
    4BR // 4.1BA // Listed for $1,860,000
    Sold for $1,182,000
    7440 7430 Sir Francis Drake Boulevard, Lagunitas
    3BR // 1BA // Listed for $1,200,000
    Sold for $1,500,000
    5 Sierra Circle, San Rafael
    5BR // 3BA // Listed for $1,500,000
    Sold for $1,460,000
    219 Rhonda Way, Mill Valley
    3BR // 2BA // Listed for $1,275,000

    Newest Listings »

    Recent Sales »

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    David O'Brien
    Broker Associate GRI
    415.342.1968
    LIC# 01832087
    Deirdre O'Brien
    Team O'Brien Top Producer
    415.948.3197
    LIC# 01990538
    Source: San Francisco Association of REALTORS® MLS (SFAR MLS). Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

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