Marin County Real Estate Tracker — May 2019

    Zephyr MarketTracker Zephyr
    Is the Market Correcting?

    Tracking April over April, this is the first time in the last 5 years that we have seen the value of single family homes decrease. At the end of 2018, we saw a statistically tiny decrease (0.003%), but that was a small aberration in an otherwise very consistent increase. The Case Shiller Index actually showed no decrease in values, just a steady increase.

    2019 is shaping up to be quite different than 2018 or 2017. For one thing, the tax laws are disadvantageous to high-value real estate. We are also in year 8 of a historically shorter recovery cycle. That said, the Bay Area economy is in a unique position where tech, a limited supply of space and housing, and the American economy all intersect. Many of the statistics are contradictory, reflecting this complex web of factors.

    A Mystery is Afoot

    Since the 1st of the year, active listings have been building, resulting in a surprising increase in total inventory. Over the last 2 years, this number becomes even more intriguing: a 39.17% increase for single family homes and a 62.17% increase for condos. One might assume, from the dramatic nature of these statistics, that the number of pending sales and sold properties had corresponding dips, but that is not the case. In fact, the pending sales of single family homes are only down 2.16% over the last 12 months, and the pending sales of condos are actually up 14.58%.

    There has been a slight dip in median sales price (MSP). Looking at April over April, the MSP of single family homes has decreased 7.14%, and the MSP of condos has decreased 6.67%. In the midst of this mystery, new listings of single family homes have decreased by 18% and new listings of condos are up 7.27%, yet another opposition.

    The Luxury Market

    Sales above $3,000,000 represent the upper end of the Marin market. This amounts to less than 9% of the total sales. The smaller sample size causes wide fluctuations in the MSP, so we recommend consulting with an experienced realtor when running the numbers on a property with this level of singularity.

    All Marin
    Sold for $1,735,000
    178 Madera Way, Mill Valley
    3BR // 2.1BA // Listed for $1,688,000
    Sold for $1,250,000
    20 Montevideo Way, San Rafael
    4BR // 3BA // Listed for $1,074,900
    Sold for $1,720,000
    235 Via La Cumbre, Greenbrae
    3BR // 3.1BA // Listed for $1,795,000
    Sold for $725,000
    4 Picadilly Court, San Rafael
    2BR // 2BA // Listed for $675,000

    Newest Listings »

    Recent Sales »

    Happenings Around the Bay Area
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    David O'Brien
    Broker Associate GRI
    415.342.1968
    LIC# 01832087
    Source: San Francisco Association of REALTORS® MLS (SFAR MLS). Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

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