Marin County Real Estate Tracker – Dec 2018

    Zephyr MarketTracker Zephyr
    This November’s numbers reveal a market that is not sure of its own identity. With the uncertainty in the economy and Marin’s low affordability index, there may be a shift toward a more balanced market. A balanced market typically means that buyers have more choice and opportunity; sellers become less able to dictate prices and terms. We are not quite there yet, as the numbers do not all point in the same direction.

    The Numbers are at Odds

    For both single-family homes and condos, the amount of available inventory varies quite a bit from month to month. Since 2016, inventory is up 11.96%. This should reduce competition for buyers. Single-family homes seem to be cooperating: over the last 12 months median sales price (MSP) for single-family homes is down 5.81%. The MSP for condos, on the other hand, is up 24.34%!

    These numbers seem to indicate that more buyers are shopping for condos than single-family homes. However, pending sales for condos are down while pending sales for single-family homes are up. Confused yet?

    Well, there has been no change in the number of new listings of condos, but new listings of single-family homes are down 18.68%. This might make sense with the heightened pending-sales, but it certainly doesn’t explain the decrease in MSP.

    Zooming Out

    Looking back over the past 6 years does not provide much guidance. There was a steady increase in MSP from 2013 to 2015 (which makes sense in the national and local contexts), but 2016 to 2018 was up and down. Over the last year, percent of list price received has dropped 2% for single-family homes and almost 3% for condos.

    What to Make of All This

    The statistics are at odds, which means there is a certain amount of wait-and-see for those of us watching the market. That said, the numbers do seem to lean toward a more balanced market. Buyers appear to have figured out that Marin condo prices are low compared to other Bay Area counties. And, while you get a lot for your money for a single-family home, the MSP of $1,150,000 may be starting to limit the buyer pool. The new year will certainly tell us more about the direction we are headed.

    All Marin
    Sold for $1,710,000
    230 Miller Avenue, Mill Valley
    2BR // 4BA // Listed for $1,895,000
    Sold for $488,000
    26 Scottsdale Way, Novato
    2BR // 2BA // Listed for $488,000
    Sold for $1,235,000
    2163 Danberry Lane, San Rafael
    4BR // 2BA // Listed for $1,295,000
    Sold for $2,125,000
    431 Live Oak Drive, Mill Valley
    4BR // 3BA // Listed for $2,195,000

    Newest Listings »

    Recent Sales »

    Happenings Around the Bay
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    David O'Brien
    Broker Associate GRI
    415.342.1968
    LIC# 01832087
    Source: San Francisco Association of REALTORS® MLS (SFAR MLS). Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

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